Euch zur Info:
Die (nationalen) Märkte für die Nationalratswahl sind aufgesetzt. Sie starten in den kommenden zwei Wochen.
******
Für Vorschläge und Anregungen für weitere Märkte - auch Ständerat - wäre ich dankbar.
******
Dieses Jahr ist es - leider - nicht möglich, ein größere Marktauswahl anzubieten, die die nationalen eidgenössischen Wahlen en detail bis in den kleinsten Kanton abbildet. Dafür fehlt der Kooperationspartner.
Ich bedaure das sehr. Zumal Wahlfieber stets die mit Abstand besten Prognosen geliefert hat.
Nur ein einziger Markt?
Es gefällt mir überhaupt nicht. Bislang waren die nationalen Wahlen in der Schweiz eine feste Bank. Früher hast du uns überschüttet mit interessanten Märkten.
Vorschläge habe ich einige. Aber wie viele User finden sich, die eidgenössische Märkte zu würdigen wissen?
Ich sehe maximal eine Handvoll, die wie ich aus der Schweiz kommen. Wo ist der grosse Rest? Wobei ich mich ausklammern sollte. Ich lebe schon lange nicht mehr in Zürich.
Nur ein einziger Markt?
leider ist dem so.
Das ist Mist!
Schade drum. Die vergangenen Wahlbörsen zur Schweiz waren überaus spannend,
ja, ich bedaure das ebenso.
aber ohne koop-partner ist eine ausführliche betrachtung der schweizer wahlen unmöglich.
am wochenende wird gewählt. und leider ist der wahlkampf häufig an mir vorbei gegangen. zum ersten mal seit über einem jahrzehnt.
zur kenntnis genommen habe ich aber u.a. eine presseaussendung der fdp zum thema: Digitalisierung ist für viele immer noch Neuland.
die mittleilung begann wie folgt - kein scheiss! -, hier ungekürzt wiedergegeben:
FDP.Die Liberalen, 11. Oktober 2019 - frei dem motto: Sie sehen lauter Nullen und Einsen und verstehen nur Bahnhof? Dann geht es Ihnen wie den meisten anderen auch...
010001000110100101100111011010010111010001100001011011000110100101110011011010010110010101110010011101010110111001100111 011010010111001101110100 01100110110000111011110001110010 0111011001101001011001010110110001100101 0110100101101101011011010110010101110010 01101110011011110110001101101000 0100111001100101011101010110110001100001011011100110010000001010010001100100010001010000 01110111011010010110110001101100 011011010110100101110100 011010110110111101101110011010110111001001100101011101000110010101101110 01001101011000010111001101110011011011100110000101101000011011010110010101101110 01000011011010000110000101101110011000110110010101101110 0111000001100001011000110110101101100101011011100000101000001010010100110110100101100101 0111001101100101011010000110010101101110 011011000110000101110101011101000110010101110010 010011100111010101101100011011000110010101101110 011101010110111001100100 010001010110100101101110011100110110010101101110 011101010110111001100100 011101100110010101110010011100110111010001100101011010000110010101101110 011011100111010101110010 0100001001100001011010000110111001101000011011110110011000111111 01000100011000010110111001101110 01100111011001010110100001110100 0110010101110011 0100100101101000011011100110010101101110 011101110110100101100101 011001000110010101101110 01101101011001010110100101110011011101000110010101101110 01100001011011100110010001100101011100100110010101101110 0110000101110101011000110110100000101110 0100100001100101011101010111010001100101 011001110110010101110011011000110110100001101001011001010110100001110100 011001000110010101110010 0110011101110010110000111011011001110011011100110111010001100101 01010100011001010110100101101100 01110101011011100111001101100101011100100110010101110010 01001011011011110110110101101101011101010110111001101001011010110110000101110100011010010110111101101110 0110100101101101 0100001001101001011011101100001110100100011100100110001101101111011001000110010100101110 010101110110100101110010 01101101110000111011110001110011011100110110010101101110 0110010001101001011001010111001101100101 001100000011000100101101010000110110111101100100011010010110010101110010011101010110111001100111 0110111001101001011000110110100001110100 0110001001100101011010000110010101110010011100100111001101100011011010000110010101101110 111000101000000010010011 01100001011000100110010101110010 011101110110100101110010 01101101110000111011110001110011011100110110010101101110 0110111101100110011001100110010101101110 01110011011001010110100101101110 01100110110000111011110001110010 011001000110100101100101 01110101011011010110011001100001011100110111001101100101011011100110010001100101 0110010001101001011001110110100101110100011000010110110001100101 0100010101101110011101000111011101101001011000110110101101101100011101010110111001100111 01110101011011100111001101100101011100100110010101110010 0101011101100101011011000111010000101110 0100010001100001011011010110100101110100 011001000110100101100101 0100110101100101011011100111001101100011011010000110010101101110 0110100101101110 011001000110010101110010 01010011011000110110100001110111011001010110100101111010 011001000110100101100101 01000011011010000110000101101110011000110110010101101110 011001000110010101110010 010001000110100101100111011010010111010001100001011011000110100101110011011010010110010101110010011101010110111001100111 011100000110000101100011011010110110010101101110 0110101111000011101101100110111001101110011001010110111000101100 0110010001100001011011010110100101110100 011100110110100101100101 01101011011001010110100101101110 01001110011001010111010101101100011000010110111001100100 01100010011011000110010101101001011000100111010000101100 01100110011011110111001001100100011001010111001001110100 011001000110100101100101 010001100100010001010000 0101011001100101011100101100001110100100011011100110010001100101011100100111010101101110011001110110010101101110 0110100101101101 01000010011010010110110001100100011101010110111001100111011100110110001001100101011100100110010101101001011000110110100000101110 010001000110000101110010011000010111010101100110 011101110110010101101001011100110110010101101110 011101110110100101110010 0110100001100101011101010111010001100101 01101000011010010110111000101100 0110100101101110011001000110010101101101 011001000110100101100101 0100011001000100010100000010110101001011011011110110110101101101011101010110111001101001011010110110000101110100011010010110111101101110 01100110110000111011110001110010 0110010101101001011011100110010101101110 010101000110000101100111 0110100101101101 01000010011010010110111011000011101001000111001001100011011011110110010001100101 01100111011001010111001101100011011010000110100101100101011010000111010000101110 00001010000010100101011101100101011011000111010001110111011001010110100101110100 011101110110010101110010011001000110010101101110 0111010011000011101001000110011101101100011010010110001101101000 1100001110111100011000100110010101110010 001100100011100000110000 01001101011010010110110001101100011010010110000101110010011001000110010101101110 0100110101100001011010010110110001110011 0111011001100101011100100111001101100011011010000110100101100011011010110111010000101100 011011110110001001110111011011110110100001101100 01101011011000010111010101101101 011010100110010101101101011000010110111001100100 011101100110010101110010011100110111010001100101011010000111010000101100 011101110110100101100101 011001000110000101110011 0110011101100101011011100110000101110101 01100110011101010110111001101011011101000110100101101111011011100110100101100101011100100111010000101110 010001000110100101100111011010010111010001100001011011000110100101110011011010010110010101110010011101010110111001100111 011010010111001101110100 110000111011110001100010011001010111001001100001011011000110110000101100 0110001001100101011001010110100101101110011001100110110001110101011100110111001101110100 0111010101101110011100110110010101110010 0110011101100101011100110110000101101101011101000110010101110011 0100110001100101011000100110010101101110 011101010110111001100100 011000100110100101100101011101000110010101110100 011101010110111001110011 0110010101101110011011110111001001101101 0111011001101001011001010110110001100101 0100001101101000011000010110111001100011011001010110111000101110 01000100011011110110001101101000 01100110110000111011110001110010 0111101001110101 0111011001101001011001010110110001100101 0100110101100101011011100111001101100011011010000110010101101110 011101010110111001100100 0110100101101110 0111101001110101 011101100110100101100101011011000110010101101110 010000100110010101110010011001010110100101100011011010000110010101101110 011001000110010101110010 01010011011000110110100001110111011001010110100101111010 011010010111001101110100 011001000110100101100101 0110010001101001011001110110100101110100011000010110110001100101 0100010101101110011101000111011101101001011000110110101101101100011101010110111001100111 01101110011011110110001101101000 0100111001100101011101010110110001100001011011100110010000101110 0101010101101101 011001000110000101110010011000010111010101100110 011010000110100101101110011110100111010101110111011001010110100101110011011001010110111000101100 01110111011010010111001001100100 011001000110100101100101 010001100100010001010000 0110100001100101011101010111010001100101 0110100101101110 011001000110010101110010 011001110110000101101110011110100110010101101110 01010011011000110110100001110111011001010110100101111010 0100011001101100011110010110010101110010 0110100101101110 01000010011010010110111011000011101001000111001001100011011011110110010001100101 011101100110010101110010011101000110010101101001011011000110010101101110 011101010110111001100100 01101001011010000111001001100101 01001011011011110110110101101101011101010110111001101001011010110110000101110100011010010110111101101110 01100110110000111011110001110010 0110010101101001011011100110010101101110 011001110110000101101110011110100110010101101110 010101000110000101100111 011000010111010101100110 001100000011000100101101010000110110111101100100011010010110010101110010011101010110111001100111 01110101011011010111001101110100011001010110110001101100011001010110111000101110 0100010001100001011011010110100101110100 011011010110000101100011011010000110010101101110 011101110110100101110010 011000010111010101100110 011001000110100101100101 01001110011011110111010001110111011001010110111001100100011010010110011101101011011001010110100101110100 01100111011100100111010101101110011001000110110001100101011001110110010101101110011001000110010101110010 0101011001100101011100101100001110100100011011100110010001100101011100100111010101101110011001110110010101101110 0110100101101101 010000100110100101101100011001000111010101101110011001110111001101100010011001010111001001100101011010010110001101101000 0110000101110101011001100110110101100101011100100110101101110011011000010110110100101100 0110010001100001011011010110100101110100 011001000110100101100101 01010011011000110110100001110111011001010110100101111010 01100001011101010110001101101000 0110101111000011101111000110111001100110011101000110100101100111 01001001011011100110111001101111011101100110000101110100011010010110111101101110011100110111011101100101011011000111010001101101011001010110100101110011011101000110010101110010 01100010011011000110010101101001011000100110010101101110 0110101101100001011011100110111000101110 010001000110100101100101 010001100100010001010000 01100110011011110111001001100100011001010111001001110100 0110101101101111011011100110101101110010011001010111010001100101 0100110101100001011100110111001101101110011000010110100001101101011001010110111000111010000010100010110100001001010101110110100101110010 011101110110111101101100011011000110010101101110 011011000110010101100010011001010110111001110011011011000110000101101110011001110110010101110011 010011000110010101110010011011100110010101101110 011001101100001110110110011100100110010001100101011100100110111000101100 0110010001100001011011010110100101110100 01101110011010010110010101101101011000010110111001100100 011101100110111101101110 011001000110010101110010 0111010001100101011000110110100001101110011010010111001101100011011010000110010101101110 0100010101101110011101000111011101101001011000110110101101101100011101010110111001100111 01100001011000100110011101100101011010001100001110100100011011100110011101110100 0111011101101001011100100110010000101110000010100010110100001001010101110110100101110010 011101110110111101101100011011000110010101101110 0100100101101110011001100110111101110010011011010110000101110100011010010110101101110101011011100111010001100101011100100111001001101001011000110110100001110100 01100010011001010111001001100101011010010111010001110011 0110100101101110 011001000110010101110010 010100000111001001101001011011010110000101110010011100110110001101101000011101010110110001100101 011000010110111001100010011010010110010101110100011001010110111000101100 0110010001100001011011010110100101110100 011101010110111001110011011001010111001001100101 010010110110100101101110011001000110010101110010 0110011001110010110000111011110001101000 011000010111010101100110 011001000110100101100101 0100100001100101011100100110000101110101011100110110011001101111011100100110010001100101011100100111010101101110011001110110010101101110 011001000110010101110010 01011010011101010110101101110101011011100110011001110100 0111011001101111011100100110001001100101011100100110010101101001011101000110010101110100 0111001101101001011011100110010000101110000010100010110100001001010101110110100101110010 011101110110111101101100011011000110010101101110 01101101011001010110100001110010 010001100111001001100001011101010110010101101110 01100110110000111011110001110010 010011010100100101001110010101000010110101000110110000111010010001100011011010000110010101110010 0110001001100101011001110110010101101001011100110111010001100101011100100110111000101100 0110010001100001011011010110100101110100 011101110110100101110010 011001000110100101100101 0110111011000011101101100111010001101001011001110110010101101110 0100011001100001011000110110100001101011011100101100001110100100011001100111010001100101 011100110110010101101100011000100111001101110100 011000010111010101110011011000100110100101101100011001000110010101101110 01101011110000111011011001101110011011100110010101101110 011101010110111001100100 01110111011001010110111001101001011001110110010101110010 011101100110111101101101 01000001011101010111001101101100011000010110111001100100 011000010110001001101000110000111010010001101110011001110110100101100111 0111001101101001011011100110010000101110 00001010000010100100100101101101 011001000110100101100111011010010111010001100001011011000110010101101110 010101110110000101101000011011000110101101100001011011010111000001100110 011011010110100101110100 011000100110010101110011011101000110010101101101 0100001001100101011010010111001101110000011010010110010101101100 011101100110111101110010011000010110111000001010010101110110100101110010 01100110011011110111001001100100011001010111001001101110 0110111001101001011000110110100001110100 011011100111010101110010 01101101011001010110100001110010 010011110110011001100110011001010110111001101000011001010110100101110100 01100111011001010110011101100101011011101100001110111100011000100110010101110010 011001000110010101110010 01000100011010010110011101101001011101000110000101101100011010010111001101101001011001010111001001110101011011100110011100101100 01110011011011110110111001100100011001010111001001101110 011100000110000101100011011010110110010101101110 011001000110100101100101 011101100110100101100101011011000110010101101110 01000011011010000110000101101110011000110110010101101110 01100010011001010111001001100101011010010111010001110011 011101010110111001100100 0110100001100001011000100110010101101110 0111011101100101011010010111010001100101 0101010001100101011010010110110001100101 011001000110010101110011 01010111011000010110100001101100011010110110000101101101011100000110011001110011 0110010001101001011001110110100101110100011000010110110001101001011100110110100101100101011100100111010000101110 1100001110011100011000100110010101110010 00110001001100000011000000110000 0100110101100101011011100111001101100011011010000110010101101110 0110011101100101011010000110010101101110 01111010011101010111001001111010011001010110100101110100 011101100110111101101110 0100100001100001011101010111001101110100110000111011110001110010 0111101001110101 0100100001100001011101010111001101110100110000111011110001110010 011101010110111001100100 011101110110010101110010011001000110010101101110 0110010001100001011000100110010101101001 011101100110111101101110 011001000110100101100111011010010111010001100001011011000110010101101110 010010010110111001110011011101000111001001110101011011010110010101101110011101000110010101101110 011101010110111001100100 0100000101101110011000010110110001111001011100110110010101101110 01110101011011100111010001100101011100100111001101110100110000111011110001110100011110100111010000101110 01010111011001010110100101110100011001010111001001100101 01110010011101010110111001100100 001101010011000000110000 0101000001100101011100100111001101101111011011100110010101101110 011001100110111101110010011011010110010101101110 0111010101101110011100110110010101110010 0101010001100101011000010110110101000110010001000101000000101100 0111010101101110011101000110010101110010 01100001011011100110010001100101011100100110010101101101 01100101011010010110111001100101 0110010001101001011001110110100101110100011000010110110001100101 010100110111000001100101011001010111001001110011011100000110100101110100011110100110010100101110 010101010110111001110011011001010111001001100101 01010000011000010111001001110100011001010110100101111010011001010110100101110100011101010110111001100111 111000101000000010010011 0100011001110010011001010110100101110011011010010110111001101110 111000101000000010010011 0110100001100001011000100110010101101110 011101110110100101110010 011011010110100101110100 010000010111010101100111011011010110010101101110011101000110010101100100 01010010011001010110000101101100011010010111010001111001 00101000010000010101001000101001 0110010101110010011001111100001110100100011011100111101001110100 011101010110111001100100 01100001011101010110001101101000 011101010110111001110011011001010111001001100101 01010000011011000110000101101011011000010111010001100101 01101011011000010110111001101110 011011010110000101101110 01100100011000010110111001101011 0100000101010010 011011010110100101110100 011001000110010101101101 01010011011011010110000101110010011101000111000001101000011011110110111001100101 011011100110010101110101 0110010101110010011011000110010101100010011001010110111000101110 01010011011001010110100101110100 01111010011101110110010101101001 010010100110000101101000011100100110010101101110 1100001110111100011000100110010101110010011101000111001001100001011001110110010101101110 011101110110100101110010 0111101001110101011001000110010101101101 01100001011011000110110001100101 011101110110100101100011011010000111010001101001011001110110010101101110 010101100110010101110010011000010110111001110011011101000110000101101100011101000111010101101110011001110110010101101110 01101100011010010111011001100101 011000010111010101100110 011001000110010101101110 0111001101101111011110100110100101100001011011000110010101101110 01001101011001010110010001101001011001010110111000101110 010100110110001101101000011011000110100101100101011100110111001101101100011010010110001101101000 01100010011001010110110001100101011101010110001101101000011101000110010101110100 0111010101101110011100110110010101110010 01010000011011110110010001100011011000010111001101110100 011001000110000101110011 010000010110001001100101011011100111010001100101011101010110010101110010 0100011001101111011100100111010001110011011000110110100001110010011010010111010001110100 011000010111010101110011 01110110011001010111001001110011011000110110100001101001011001010110010001100101011011100110010101101110 01010000011001010111001001110011011100000110010101101011011101000110100101110110011001010110111000101110 01000110110000111011110001110010 011101010110111001110011 011010010111001101110100 0110101101101100011000010111001000111010 010001000110100101100111011010010111010001100001011011000110100101110011011010010110010101110010011101010110111001100111 011010010111001101110100 01011010011101010110101101110101011011100110011001110100 011101010110111001100100 011000100110100101100101011101000110010101110100 01111010011000010110100001101100011100100110010101101001011000110110100001100101 0100001101101000011000010110111001100011011001010110111000101110 010011100111010101110100011110100110010101101110 011101110110100101110010 011100110110100101100101001000010000101000001010010001000110100101100101 01010011011000110110100001110111011001010110100101111010 0111011101101001011011000110110000101110 010011010110000101100011011010000110010101101110 011101110110100101110010 0110010101110011 011011011100001110110110011001110110110001101001011000110110100000101110 00001010
*****
Anm.:
SVP | SP | FDP | CVP | Grüne | glp | BDP | Andere | MAE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ergebnis 2015 | - 29,4 % - | - 18,8 % - | - 16,4 % - | - 11,6 % - | - 7,1 % - | 4,6 % - | 4,1 - | - 8,0 % - | - |
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
Prognosen 2019 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
Wahlbörsen | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Wahlfieber - Schlusskurs | 26,92 - | 18,18 - | 15,34 - | 10,43 - | 11,06 | 7,96 - | 2,77- | 7,34 - | |
Wahlfieber - Durchschnitt | 26,9 - | 18,2 - | 15,3 - | 10,4 - | 10,9 - | 7,7 - | 2,6 - | 7,9 - | |
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
Umfragen | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Sotomo | 27,3 - | 18,2 - | 15,2 - | 10,6 - | 10,7 - | 7,3 - | 2,8 - | 7,6 - | |
LeeWas | 27,9 - | 18,0 - | 15,6 - | 10,4 - | 10,2 - | 7,2 - | 3,3 - | 7,4 - | |
Gallup | 26,9 - | 18,5 - | 15,9 - | 10,5 - | 10,5 - | 7,4 - | 3,1 - | 7,2 - | |
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
Sonstige ** | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Me, Myself & (Blue) I'd | 27,25 - | 18,0 - | 15,5 - | 10,5 ** | 11,0 - | 8,0 - | 2,75 - | 7,0 ** - | |
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
Nachwahlumfragen | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
SRF- gfs Bern | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Ergebnis 2019 | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | - |
*****
Weitere Details - siehe auch "sonstige Prognosen", dort: Prognose für "Andere" (gekennzeichnet mit: 7,0 **):
******
******
** Unklar ist aktuell, ob ein Kandidat im Kanton OW vom BfS als "(partei-)unabhängig" gewertet wird oder u.U. einer ihn (primär) unterstützenden Partei (denkbar: CVP) zugeschlagen wird. Die abgegebene Prognose müsste ggf. entsprechend angepasst werden (Änderungspielraum: 0,25 %)
******
******
Detailprognose Wahlieber - ausgewählte kleine Parteien (in der Reihenfolge: Schlusskurs / Durchschnitt):
******
******
******
Links:
Bitte auch folgenden Thread beachten:
http://www.wahlfieber.ch/de_sie/forum/prognosen/7264/1/#posting1
******
Die eigentliche Diskussion über den eidgenössischen Wahlausgang könnte dort stattfinden.
In den nächsten Wochen und Monaten finden u.a. folgende Wahlen und Abstimmungen statt – zu allen Terminen werden (voraussichtlich) Märkte aufgesetzt:
(Hinweis: Links verweisen stets auf Wahlfieber.de - identischer Login)
1. Halbjahr
2. Halbjahr
So tragen Sie mit Ihrem Wissen zur Prognose bei - Mehr im Infocenter
Fehlermeldungen und Feedback bitte per E-Mail an: help@wahlfieber.com