New Zealand general election, 2017 --- English only!
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New Zealand general election, 2017 --- English only!
gruener (Luddit), 04.07.2017 03:41An information to our German speaking traders:
ALL posts (incl. questions) in English, please. (In German: Bitte verzichtet in diesem Thread auf das sonst übliche Deutsch. Diverse Personen aus Neuseeland lesen mit - und werden posten. Danke! - Diese Personen beantworten auch eure in Englisch verfassten Fragen.)
PS: Sollte jemand Schwierigkeiten haben, eine Frage in Englisch zu formulieren, bitte ggf. einen weiteren Thread eröffnen mit der Bitte an andere User, selbige Frage ins Englische zu übertragen. Dergleichen wird mit Sicherheit vorkommen. Auch mein Englisch ist alles andere als perfekt)
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More about the New Zealand general election, 2017:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_general_election,_2017
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PS: Sollte jemand Schwierigkeiten haben, eine Frage in Englisch zu formulieren, bitte ggf. einen weiteren Thread eröffnen mit der Bitte an andere User, selbige Frage ins Englische zu übertragen. Dergleichen wird mit Sicherheit vorkommen. Auch mein Englisch ist alles andere als perfekt)
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I, think you "are on the woodway" -:). This would'nt be necessary.
Even our former Präsident Heinrich Lübke and in the nearer past our EU- Kommissar Günther Oettinger have spoken very understandable English -:)
Joseph Beuys postulated every human is an performer. I tell you every Wahlfieber-guy is an translator -:) -
Hello! Let me start off this discussion by giving a very informal run down of the 2017 election dynamics from New Zealand. I'm sure the campaign will heat up significantly - and I’m sure more people will have some thoughts to add.
John Key out, Bill English in:
National have won the last three elections and currently have a confidence and supply agreement with the Maori Party, Act, and United Future. But this was with the very popular leader, John Key. He's since stepped down as Prime Minister, now replaced by Bill English.
Bill English is far less charismatic, fairly uninspiring, and has been an MP for ages (first elected in 1990). I personally can't see him attracting many new National voters. But on the flip side he (with National) may represent a solid 'status quo' which could be appealing to New Zealanders. In a world with plenty of turmoil (Trump, Brexit), the status quo doesn't sound like a bad option.
The Labour and Greens opposition:
The Labour party is the main opposition to National - sitting central left (National sits central right). The Green party (who sits further left) is crucial for Labour being able to form a coalition government (see link in previous post) given the Greens usually win a substantial number of votes. Often they are referred to as the 'Labour/Greens" for this reason.
As mentioned National has been elected three times in a row. Therefore Labour could pick up a lot of swing voters who want change, or even some of National’s base who are tired of the current government. Labour's deputy, Jacinda Ardern, also represents a fresh perspective on politics which may have a positive impact on younger voters (she's 36 which is relatively young compared to her colleagues).
Without diving into any policy:
Labour/Greens = fresh, change
National = status quo
Winston's impact
The spanner in the above is Winston Peters (leader of NZ First). Winston attracts the retired population's vote. He channels the international trend towards anti-immigration and anti-globalisation that caused Trump and Brexit. If you talk to an old person in NZ (yes this is steretyping) they blame everything on immigration - traffic, housing, having to wait 45minutes in the doctor’s office, etc. This means that Winston Peters is basically music to their ears.
The reason this is a spanner in the works is because he has the potential of winning a substantial number of votes, but does not have a particular leaning to either of the major parties.
Campbell
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Thanks for all that information!
New Zealand has, as I understand it, a mixed system with electoral seats and proportional seats like in Germany. In Germany it's 50:50 and actually the proportional seats are more important. In New Zealand we have 71 electorals (including 7 for Maori) and 49 proportional seats.
I would guess that the Greens and NZ First have therefore just limited influence, or are they able to win more than 1 electoral seat (like e.g. in UK)? And do you see a trend regarding NZ First, as Trumps fame is shrinking?Another question: Why is the Maori Party supporting the Nationals? Shouldn't they have more in common with Labour and Greens?
I like the orange guy. Should be good for voter turnout.
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Labour and National have the most influence. But the Greens and NZ First have valuable seats. Last time the greens had 14 seats (you need 61 seats to form a Government).
We know the Greens won't form a government with National, but they will with Labour. And with Labour only winning 32 seats last time even a significant improvement would leave them well short of the 61 seats needed. Therefore those Green seats are quite important for Labour.
NZ First won 12 seats last time. If they win that many again they could be the 'king maker'...whoever they form a confidence and supply agreement with first would very likely form a government. Or they could sit tight and create a hung parliament.
I'm hoping Sophia joins the market soon - she knows much much more about this stuff!
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This is the poll of polls (a weighted average of all election polls)
https://www.pundit.co.nz/content/poll-of-polls
The Greens always poll above their performance on election night (see the green dot). At the moment they are polling at about 13% - so if the same trend follows they may get 11% on election night. The current prediction in the Wahlfieber is 18%.
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As the polls tell us, the Nationals need some more points to rule again with the Maori Party, or they have to make a coalition with NZ1st. Right now it seem unthinkable, that NZ1st and the Maoris rule together, as the extremist party wants to get rid off the institutional Maori seats:
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/335216/peter-s-referendum-call-would-sid eline-maori-fox
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Labour leader Little stepped down as polls see the party mired in the low twenties. Rather odd / desperate move this close to the general election.
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The new Labour leader, Jacinda, has restored a lot of faith in the Labour base. And on the left in general. I think this will increase their party votes on election night - but I also think these extra votes will not be incremental to the Green/Labour coalition (they will just move from one party to the other).
The Labour party has been plagued by inconistency and instability for some time now (just look at how many leaders they have had in the last 5 years). While the Labour faithful are excited and confident with their new leader, the question is do they have the ability to pick up more of the the swing votes with another late change to leadership?
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The new Labour leader, Jacinda, has restored a lot of faith in the Labour base.
Maybe she "makes a Corbyn" and surprises us. But then Labour would need bad mistakes and lots of arrogance of the Nationals. Is there any kind of NewZealaxit in sight?
There are obviously many journalists and politicians who fear Jacinda. At least they keep asking her, if she doesnt want children and "whether it was acceptable for the country's leader to take maternity leave while in office".
http://www.startribune.com/the-jacinda-effect-new-zealand-politician-enjoys-rapi d-rise/438463803/
Fine music for political ears
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