Portuguese legislative elections

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  • Portuguese legislative elections

    Wahlfieber Team, 14.01.2026 23:06
    #1

    In diesem Thread sind die Auswertungen der letzten Parlamentswahlen in Portugal dokumentiert - beginnend mit der Wahl im Jahre 2019.

    Die Auswertungskriterien können en detail an folgender Stelle ein- und nachgelesen werden:

    Wie wir die Prognosegüte ermitteln - http://www.wahlfieber.de/de_du/forum/WaFi-Team/7585/

    *******

    Legende (für den Schnelleinstieg):

    • MAF: mittlerer absoluter Fehler --- oft auch MAE - Mean absolute error
    • MAPF: mittlerer absoluter prozentualer Fehler - oft auch MAPE- Mean absolute percentage error
    • sMAPE: symmetrischer MAPF
    • MQF: mittlerer quadratischer Fehler--- oft auch MSE- Mean squared error
    • NOTE: aus den zuvor angeführten Fehlern ermittelte Gesamtgüte einer Prognose (angelehnt an gängige Schulnoten)
    • R: Abkürzung für "Rang" (innerhalb der in der jeweiligen Tabelle aufgeführten Prognosen)
    • X: diese Prognose fließt nicht in die Auswertung ein

    Anmerkungen:

    Quellen:

    • wahlfieber.com
    • wikipedia.org
    • politpro.eu
    • politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls
    • X/Twitter: --- x.com/GlobeElections --- x.com/XPoll21 --- x.com/wahl_prognosen --- @wahlfieber
    • Ergebnisse:

    *******

    Dieser Thread wird nach jeder Parlamentswahl um eine aktuelle Auswertung ergänzt.

    *******

    *******

    Die nachfolgenden Auflistungen erheben keinen Anspruch auf Vollständigkeit, obgleich wir bemüht sind, möglichst alle Prognosen zu erfassen.

    Fehlermeldungen, Anmerkungen oder Ergänzungen bitte ggf. per Mail an den Support oder an geeigneter Stelle im Forum.

    Link prediction
    There is 1 a reply to this post.

  • Portuguese legislative election, 2019

    Wahlfieber Team, 14.01.2026 23:08, Reply to #1
    #2

    ..

    Parlamentswahl Portugal 2019 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte

    ...

    PSPSD/CDSBlocoCDUPANCHEGAAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Ergebnis 201532,3036,9010,208,301,400,0010,90
    Prognosen 2019
    Wahlbörsen
    Wahlfieber - Schlusskurs37,7529,919,727,173,990,0011,462,151,034,311,416
    WaFi intern - Schlussk.37,5430,239,727,083,960,0011,472,010,924,001,095
    Umfragen
    Pitagorica39,2028,9010,007,703,200,0011,002,741,564,863,6511
    CESOP-UCP37,0035,0010,006,003,001,008,002,731,385,323,7010
    Aximage36,5031,7010,706,603,801,309,401,890,693,830,831
    ICS/ISCTE38,0033,0010,006,003,000,409,60X2,181,054,191,747
    Intercampus35,0030,608,708,005,600,0012,102,821,317,892,0812
    Pitagorica37,2032,409,206,604,801,808,002,441,005,971,758
    Multidados37,7030,3012,505,905,000,008,603,692,0010,055,2813
    Eurosondagem38,8030,509,607,104,000,0010,002,561,325,342,579
    Expertenprognosen
    Wahlfieber Team (MMI)37,0031,0010,007,004,001,0010,001,980,824,250,794
    MMI-Wahltrend37,4431,669,736,673,940,809,771,900,753,750,922
    Wahltipps
    Wahlfieber Average37,3031,059,836,903,970,6810,281,940,824,000,823
    PSPSD/CDSBlocoCDUPANCHEGAAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Durchschnittswerte
    Wahlbörsen37,6530,079,727,133,980,0011,472,080,984,161,25
    Umfragen37,4331,5510,096,744,050,569,592,641,295,932,70
    Expertenprognosen37,2231,339,876,843,970,909,881,940,794,000,85
    Wahltipps37,3031,059,836,903,970,6710,281,940,824,000,82
    Gesamtdurchschnitt
    Summen37,4231,259,986,824,020,549,982,411,135,212,05
    Exit Polls
    Intercampus36,0030,509,006,003,500,0015,001,870,903,361,51
    Pitagorica36,5031,009,707,003,701,6010,501,360,462,440,29
    ICS/ISCTE38,0030,1010,406,003,501,4010,601,720,902,841,24
    CESOP/UCP36,5033,0010,507,004,001,507,502,521,166,192,52
    Ergebnis 201936,3531,989,526,343,321,2911,20
    PSPSD/CDSBlocoCDUPANCHEGAAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Link prediction
    There is 1 a reply to this post.

  • Portuguese legislative election, 2022

    Wahlfieber Team, 14.01.2026 23:17, Reply to #2
    #3

    ..

    Parlamentswahl Portugal 2022 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte

    ...

    PSPSDBLOCOCDUPANILCHEGALIVREAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Ergebnis 201936,4030,707,204,904,404,301,601,304,20
    Prognosen 2022
    Wahlbörsen *
    Wahlfieber - Schlusskurs35,3630,305,798,472,013,655,170,009,254,332,3313,198,6013
    WaFi intern - Schlussk.35,8630,745,887,232,043,625,240,009,394,082,1912,547,1310
    Umfragen
    Pitagorica39,6030,006,405,101,805,105,700,006,302,881,398,552,591
    CESOP-UCP36,0033,006,005,002,006,006,002,004,004,242,1913,388,2911
    Aximage33,8034,406,604,503,202,808,001,405,304,942,6014,4813,2914
    ICS/ISCTE35,0033,005,006,002,006,006,001,006,00X3,922,0310,308,559
    Intercampus35,3029,308,506,004,305,607,100,603,304,972,4120,709,3015
    Pitagorica       (tracking poll)36,6032,905,105,201,205,205,401,706,703,411,688,956,175
    Metris39,2032,605,005,401,104,406,800,604,903,471,4812,304,186
    Eurosondagem38,1027,505,105,602,805,509,200,006,203,211,4610,853,073
    Sonstige Umfr.-Prognosen
    PolitPro35,6032,106,105,002,504,307,200,007,204,321,7318,756,6012
    PSPSDBLOCOCDUPANILCHEGALIVREAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Expertenprognosen
    Wahlfieber Team (MMI)37,0031,006,005,002,005,007,001,006,002,941,367,783,932
    MMI-Wahltrend36,6131,375,885,672,074,806,230,406,983,621,5612,974,738
    Wahltipps
    Wahlfieber-User36,8131,185,945,332,034,906,610,706,493,241,469,944,254
    Wahlfieber Average36,5731,075,925,812,044,586,270,537,213,491,5311,894,577
    PSPSDBLOCOCDUPANILCHEGALIVREAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Durchschnittswerte
    Wahlbörsen35,6130,525,847,852,033,645,210,009,324,202,2612,867,87
    Umfragen36,7031,595,965,352,305,086,780,915,348,973,7429,9564,40
    Sonstige Prognosen35,6032,106,105,002,504,307,200,007,204,321,7318,756,60
    Expertenprognosen36,8131,185,945,332,034,906,610,706,493,291,4610,384,33
    Wahltipps36,5731,075,925,812,044,586,270,527,213,491,5311,894,57
    Gesamtdurchschnitt
    Summen36,4731,385,955,712,224,756,520,666,34Note3,0123,5442,47
    Exit Polls
    Intercampus39,6029,704,404,501,955,505,801,407,151,960,744,471,09
    Pitagorica40,0029,205,004,501,806,506,502,204,302,911,1210,071,95
    ICS/ISCTE39,4028,904,504,501,806,206,501,406,801,900,704,340,88
    CESOP/UCP39,5032,504,504,002,005,506,501,504,003,041,378,284,33
    Ergebnis 202241,3827,664,404,301,584,927,181,287,30
    PSPSDBLOCOCDUPANILCHEGALIVREAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Link prediction
    There is 1 a reply to this post.

  • Portuguese legislative election, 2024

    Wahlfieber Team, 15.01.2026 00:12, Reply to #3
    #4

    ..

    Parlamentswahl Portugal 2024 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte

    ...

    PSADCHEGAILBLOCOCDUPANLIVREAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Ergebnis 202241,4030,707,204,904,404,301,601,304,20
    Prognosen 2024
    Wahlbörsen
    Wahlfieber - Schlusskurs27,0133,9917,017,155,003,331,110,005,404,401,8220,515,4815
    WaFi intern - Schlussk.29,6332,7217,315,165,113,411,140,005,524,001,5018,533,7612
    Umfragen
    Duplimetrica26,0029,0020,007,004,002,002,003,007,002,410,946,771,531
    CESOP-UCP28,0034,0016,006,005,005,001,003,002,004,271,9416,247,5114
    Consulmark226,7028,1017,506,307,203,301,202,107,602,810,979,801,578
    Aximage33,1029,6016,703,906,604,002,001,702,404,222,0015,617,1213
    ICS/ISCTE30,0031,0017,004,005,002,001,003,007,00X2,831,079,861,539
    Intercampus25,0031,5016,808,405,902,304,004,601,504,982,4821,158,4017
    Duplimetrica29,0035,0015,006,005,003,001,004,002,004,472,1615,789,1616
    Pitagorica26,9030,6014,208,005,602,200,901,909,703,951,8316,144,2611
    Sonstige Umfr.-Prognosen
    PolitPro28,6032,0017,104,905,603,201,802,704,102,661,127,092,787
    Pollytix28,0032,0017,006,005,004,001,004,003,003,581,4613,723,9710
    PSADCHEGAILBLOCOCDUPANLIVREAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Expertenprognosen
    Wahlfieber Team (MMI)28,0031,0017,006,005,503,001,503,005,002,520,987,411,675
    MMI-Wahltrend28,4531,1417,685,415,042,721,492,345,722,450,877,471,202
    Wahltipps
    Wahlfieber-User28,2231,0717,345,715,272,861,492,675,362,470,927,401,373
    Wahlfieber Average28,5731,4817,335,575,233,001,412,005,402,741,068,961,716
    PSADCHEGAILBLOCOCDUPANLIVREAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Durchschnittswerte
    Wahlbörsen28,3233,3617,166,165,063,371,130,005,464,201,6619,524,62
    Umfragen28,0931,1016,656,205,542,981,642,914,903,781,6713,925,14
    Sonstige Prognosen28,3032,0017,055,455,303,601,403,353,553,151,2910,403,37
    Expertenprognosen28,2231,0717,345,715,272,861,492,675,362,490,927,441,44
    Wahltipps28,5731,4817,335,575,233,001,412,005,402,741,068,961,71
    Gesamtdurchschnitt
    Summen28,2031,5416,915,995,393,101,502,494,893,531,4813,004,11
    Exit Polls
    Intercampus26,8030,2018,105,304,703,202,004,105,601,950,704,600,91
    Pitagorica27,0030,5019,104,804,503,801,803,704,802,280,895,951,46
    ICS/ISCTE26,3029,7018,705,704,802,901,803,606,501,890,704,520,68
    CESOP/UCP27,0031,0015,506,005,003,002,004,006,502,341,065,871,73
    Ergebnis 202427,9828,8318,064,944,363,171,953,167,55
    PSADCHEGAILBLOCOCDUPANLIVREAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Link prediction
    There is 1 a reply to this post.

  • Portuguese legislative election, 2025

    Wahlfieber Team, 15.01.2026 00:23, Reply to #4
    #5

    ..

    Parlamentswahl Portugal 2025 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte

    ...

    ADPSCHEGAILBLOCOCDULIVREPANAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Ergebnis 202428,8028,0018,104,904,403,203,201,907,50
    Prognosen 2025
    Umfragen
    Pitagorica33,2025,6019,205,802,203,005,101,304,602,731,326,793,228
    CESOP-UCP34,0026,0019,007,002,003,005,001,003,003,581,7911,065,3415
    Consulmark233,1025,9015,707,603,802,806,201,103,804,552,3515,369,2919
    Aximage28,6028,4018,107,303,402,404,102,605,104,312,2613,868,1918
    ICS/ISCTE32,0027,0019,005,002,004,003,002,006,00X3,031,368,643,9211
    Intercampus28,8024,1017,406,103,303,003,101,9012,304,062,0712,357,9817
    Weitere Umfragen
    Sendestörung32,5025,5019,506,002,503,004,501,505,002,551,156,452,537
    XPoll2132,5025,7019,705,902,302,904,801,404,802,491,155,932,616
    Sonstige Umfr.-Prognosen
    Observador32,6026,3017,706,903,302,504,801,104,803,601,7511,475,2916
    PolitPro30,9026,8018,406,402,603,203,801,706,202,931,387,354,209
    Politico32,0024,0020,006,002,003,005,001,007,002,030,704,841,161
    Publico32,4026,2017,906,502,703,304,201,205,603,001,417,764,3410
    Globe Elections UN29,6628,0420,296,022,893,814,461,333,503,591,7910,695,7414
    ADPSCHEGAILBLOCOCDULIVREPANAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Expertenprognosen
    Wahlfieber Team (MMI)31,5025,5020,006,002,503,004,501,505,502,330,995,721,974
    Romani seniores, Aenii33,1026,3017,106,502,503,204,301,205,803,141,547,505,4212
    MMI-Wahltrend32,2425,5619,585,742,203,184,481,445,582,261,004,922,222
    Wahltipps
    Wahlfieber-User31,8725,5319,795,872,353,094,491,475,542,280,965,292,073
    Wahlfieber Average32,1225,5619,715,902,373,034,551,465,282,371,045,642,245
    ADPSCHEGAILBLOCOCDULIVREPANAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Durchschnittswerte
    Umfragen31,6226,1718,076,472,783,034,421,655,803,731,8611,346,32
    Weitere Umfragen32,5025,6019,605,952,402,954,651,454,902,521,156,192,57
    Sonstige Prognosen31,5126,2718,866,362,703,164,451,275,423,051,418,424,15
    Expertenprognosen32,2825,7918,896,082,403,134,431,385,632,301,005,322,09
    Wahltipps32,0025,5419,755,892,363,064,521,475,412,331,005,462,15
    Gesamtdurchschnitt
    Summen31,8426,0018,786,252,613,084,471,465,523,081,448,484,25
    Exit Polls
    Intercampus33,9022,4023,605,302,002,903,651,304,951,780,663,551,04
    Pitagorica32,1022,4022,506,502,602,804,701,504,902,160,626,130,72
    ICS/ISCTE32,5023,7022,005,802,302,704,901,504,602,160,735,900,91
    CESOP/UCP31,5023,5022,005,502,003,004,501,506,501,230,322,100,17
    Ergebnis 202531,7922,8322,765,361,992,914,071,386,91
    ADPSCHEGAILBLOCOCDULIVREPANAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Link prediction
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