Norwegian parliamentary elections (Stortingsvalget)

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  • Norwegian parliamentary elections (Stortingsvalget)

    Wahlfieber Team, 02.09.2025 18:31
    #1

    In diesem Thread sind die Auswertungen der letzten Parlamentswahlen in Norwegen dokumentiert - beginnend mit der Wahl im Jahre 2017.

    Die Auswertungskriterien können en detail an folgender Stelle ein- und nachgelesen werden:

    Wie wir die Prognosegüte ermitteln - http://www.wahlfieber.de/de_du/forum/WaFi-Team/7585/

    *******

    Legende (für den Schnelleinstieg):

    • MAF: mittlerer absoluter Fehler --- oft auch MAE - Mean absolute error
    • MAPF: mittlerer absoluter prozentualer Fehler - oft auch MAPE- Mean absolute percentage error
    • sMAPE: symmetrischer MAPF
    • MQF: mittlerer quadratischer Fehler--- oft auch MSE- Mean squared error
    • NOTE: aus den zuvor angeführten Fehlern ermittelte Gesamtgüte einer Prognose (angelehnt an gängige Schulnoten)
    • R: Abkürzung für "Rang" (innerhalb der in der jeweiligen Tabelle aufgeführten Prognosen)
    • X: diese Prognose fließt nicht in die Auswertung ein

    Anmerkungen:

    • Die Werte für den MMI-Wahltrend vor 2021 wurden nachträglich anhand der aktuell gültigen Zusammensetzung ermittelt.
    • WaFi-Average gibt den Durchschnitt aller Prognosen aus dem Umfeld von Wahlfieber wieder.

    *******

    Dieser Thread wird nach jeder Parlamentswahl um eine aktuelle Auswertung ergänzt.

    *******

    *******

    Die nachfolgenden Auflistungen erheben keinen Anspruch auf Vollständigkeit, obgleich wir bemüht sind, möglichst alle Prognosen zu erfassen.

    Fehlermeldungen, Anmerkungen oder Ergänzungen bitte ggf. per Mail an den Support oder an geeigneter Stelle im Forum.

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    There is 1 a reply to this post.

  • Auswertung der Norwegian parliamentary election, 2017

    Wahlfieber Team, 02.09.2025 19:07, Reply to #1
    #2

    ..

    Stortingsvalget 2017 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte

    ...


    		RSVApSpVKrFHFrPAnd.
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Ergebnis 20131,104,1030,805,505,205,6026,8016,301,80





















    Prognosen 2017






























    Wahlbörsen














    Wahlfieber2,505,5026,9910,703,505,0024,8015,011,59
    		1,940,495,230,352

















    		RSVApSpVKrFHFrPAnd.
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Umfragen














    Norstat3,205,9025,809,603,504,5024,2017,001,70
    		2,280,856,481,037
    Respons Analyse3,107,3025,609,904,505,5024,7014,302,40
    		2,300,796,840,868
    InFact3,308,1028,0010,705,204,7021,5012,601,50
    		2,921,298,982,7311
    Norfakta3,105,0026,3010,504,205,3025,8013,801,50
    		2,330,807,090,8110
    Opinion Perduco4,906,0026,408,602,503,4025,9015,301,30
    		3,261,1812,962,1312
    Sentio2,505,1027,0011,104,105,3024,2013,101,50
    		2,580,977,911,639
    Kantar3,105,6028,1010,204,604,4023,8014,601,70
    		1,730,504,060,361
    Ipsos3,506,2027,209,404,704,2023,2015,301,90
    		1,960,594,950,703

















    		RSVApSpVKrFHFrPAnd.
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Expertenprognosen














    Wahlfieber Team3,506,0027,0010,004,004,5024,5014,501,50
    		2,060,535,860,416
    MMI-Wahltrend3,505,8627,149,783,864,3024,4414,941,60
    		2,020,515,650,415
















    Wahltipps














    WaFi-Average3,255,8227,0510,093,824,5524,5514,791,56
    		2,000,495,580,344

















    		RSVApSpVKrFHFrPAnd.
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Durchschnittswerte














    Wahlbörsen2,505,5026,9910,703,505,0024,8015,011,59
    		1,940,495,230,35
    Umfragen3,346,1526,8010,004,164,6624,1614,501,69
    		2,450,877,411,28
    Expertenprognosen3,505,9327,079,893,934,4024,4714,721,55
    		2,040,525,760,41
    Wahltipps3,255,8227,0510,093,824,5524,5514,791,56
    		2,000,495,580,34
















    Gesamtdurchschnitt














    Summen3,296,0326,8810,054,044,6424,3014,601,65
    		2,310,756,800,98
















































    Ergebnis 20172,416,0227,3710,324,374,2025,0415,191,84






















    		RSVApSpVKrFHFrPAnd.
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
















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    There is 1 a reply to this post.

  • Auswertung der Norwegian parliamentary election, 2021

    Wahlfieber Team, 02.09.2025 19:29, Reply to #2
    #3

    ..

    Stortingsvalget 2021 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte

    ...


    		RSVApSpVKrFHFrPAnd.
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Ergebnis 20172,416,0227,3710,324,374,2025,0415,191,84





















    Prognosen 2021






























    Wahlbörsen *














    Wahlfieber6,498,6925,4613,085,295,3818,099,983,44
    		2,431,056,681,589

















    		RSVApSpVKrFHFrPAnd.
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Umfragen














    Norstat4,609,0024,6011,605,803,9018,8011,904,90
    		2,381,046,461,488
    Respons Analyse6,009,4026,6011,103,904,5018,0012,403,90
    		2,461,096,641,7910
    Norfakta5,408,2024,0014,803,803,6019,1011,803,40
    		2,250,945,811,377
    Opinion Perduco4,607,7026,9014,804,503,3018,9011,902,60
    		1,900,634,640,633
    Sentio5,408,8023,9013,203,803,9019,809,804,20
    		2,681,167,762,2712
    Verian/Kantar5,708,7024,6012,704,503,8019,0012,303,60
    		1,900,784,280,914
    Ipsos6,0011,8022,9012,206,104,2017,0011,803,70
    		3,121,607,994,5612
















    Sonstige Umfr.-Prognosen














    PolitPro5,309,1024,8013,104,703,9018,6011,803,80
    		1,840,724,030,882

















    		RSVApSpVKrFHFrPAnd.
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Expertenprognosen














    Wahlfieber Team5,509,0025,0013,004,504,0019,0011,503,50
    		1,820,684,080,731
    MMI-Wahltrend5,609,1724,9413,154,934,1018,4311,553,44
    		1,940,764,460,945
















    Wahltipps














    WaFi Average5,788,9825,0913,084,864,3818,5611,143,46
    		2,000,794,860,886

















    		RSVApSpVKrFHFrPAnd.
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Durchschnittswerte














    Wahlbörsen6,498,6925,4613,085,295,3818,099,983,44
    		2,431,056,681,58
    Umfragen5,399,0924,7912,914,633,8918,6611,703,76
    		2,401,046,231,86
    Sonstige Prognosen5,309,1024,8013,104,703,9018,6011,803,80
    		1,840,724,030,88
    Expertenprognosen5,559,0824,9713,074,724,0518,7211,523,47
    		1,880,724,270,83
    Wahltipps5,788,9825,0913,084,864,3818,5611,143,46
    		2,000,794,860,88
















    Gesamtdurchschnitt














    Summen5,539,0424,9012,984,724,0818,6111,493,66
    		#DIV/0!0,945,641,50
















































    Ergebnis 20214,727,6426,2513,504,613,8020,3511,613,58






















    		RSVApSpVKrFHFrPAnd.
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
















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