Präsidentschaftswahl 2020: die Ausgangslage
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Die Welt als Wille und Vorstellung
Wanli, 24.03.2020 11:58, Antwort aufErstmals waren in den USA jetzt mehr als 100 Tote an einem Tag zu verzeichnen.
https://politicalwire.com/2020/03/23/more-than-100-died-in-the-last-day-from-cor onavirus/
Bei der abendlichen Pressekonferenz deutete der Präsident denn auch folgerichtig an, langsam müsse mal Schluss sein mit den (in den Staaten auch teilweise kaum umgesetzten) Eindämmungsmaßnahmen:
Our country wasn’t built to be shut down.
https://politicalwire.com/2020/03/23/bonus-quote-of-the-day-1293/
In Gesprächen im Weißen Haus und auf Twitter: Drumpf motzt mittlerweile ständig über den von der eigenen Regierung erst am vergangenen Montag nach Monaten der Verharmlosung eingeschlagenen Kurs.
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/23/21191289/trump-social-distancing-tweets-coronaviru s
President Donald Trump has never been known for his patience or long attention span.
Now, as the coronavirus crisis threatens his presidency, and upends his campaign for reelection, Trump is rapidly losing patience with the medical professionals who have made the case day after day that the only way to prevent a catastrophic loss of life is to essentially shut down the country — to minimize transmission and “flatten the curve” so hospitals aren’t overwhelmed with critical patients.
The president also has been furious that his efforts to halt the harrowing drop in the stock market have so far proven ineffective. He has been calling friends and economists at all hours and berated aides and reporters who try to persuade him to recognize the severity of the outbreak.
https://apnews.com/5dd6b30e03542b435e2716e3e3a483e4
Das Herumlavieren des POTUS hat natürlich Konsequenzen: FOX News hatte den Schwenk am vergangenen Montag brav nachvollzogen und nach einer langen Zeit der Verharmlosung der neuen Krankheit nun von Drumpf als "Kriegspräsidenten" in schwerer Krise schwadroniert; jetzt dürfte sich der Ton des Senders erneut ändern. Und diese Botschaften vom Orangenen, weiteren republikanischen Politikern und konservativen Medien zeigen Umfragen zufolge durchaus Wirkung, wenn man etwa vergleicht, wie ernst Demokraten die Lage nehmen und wie besorgt Republikaner sind.
https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/03/stop-airing-trumps-daily-coronavi rus-show-live/
Drumpfs Chef-Virologe Anthony Fauci gab derweil ein Interview - und ließ seinen Frust über die Entscheidungsfindungsprozesse im Weißen Haus durchaus durchscheinen:
Q: The first question everyone has is how are you?
A: Well, I’m sort of exhausted. But other than that, I’m good. I mean, I’m not, to my knowledge, coronavirus infected. To my knowledge, I haven’t been fired [laughs]. [...]
Q: What about the travel restrictions? Trump keeps saying that the travel ban for China, which began 2 February, had a big impact on slowing the spread of the virus to the United States and that he wishes China would have told us 3 to 4 months earlier and that they were “very secretive.” (China did not immediately reveal the discovery of a new coronavirus in late December 2019, but by 10 January, Chinese researchers made the sequence of the virus public.) It just doesn’t comport with facts.
A: I know, but what do you want me to do? I mean, seriously Jon, let’s get real, what do you want me to do?
Q: Most everyone thinks that you’re doing a remarkable job, but you’re standing there as the representative of truth and facts, and things are being said that aren’t true and aren’t factual.
A: The way it happened is that after he made that statement [suggesting China could have revealed the discovery of a new coronavirus 3 to 4 months earlier], I told the appropriate people, it doesn’t comport, because 2 or 3 months earlier would have been September. The next time they sit down with him and talk about what he’s going to say, they will say, “By the way, Mr. President, be careful about this and don’t say that.” But I can’t jump in front of the microphone and push him down. OK, he said it. Let’s try and get it corrected for the next time.
Q: You have not said China virus. (Trump frequently calls the cause of the spreading illness known as coronavirus disease 2019 a “China virus” or a “Chinese virus.”)
A: Ever.
Q: And you never will, will you?
A: No.
EDIT
Ultimately, there are two intractable truths about Trump that make a significant change of course very unlikely. The first is that he has virtually no ability to think long-term. This has been a dominant theme of his political career, where he has consistently obsessed over the current news cycle, and has shown zero concern for what might happen next week or next month or next year. He wasn't an especially skilled long-term thinker in his business career, either. His role in the Trump Organization was to "finish" the deal; to sign the paperwork, or show up for the ground-breaking/ribbon-cutting photo-op. Actually executing his deals, over the course of months or years, was the job of faceless folks in the vice-presidential suite. Anyhow, the President really, really wants this whole thing to be in the rear-view mirror by the weekend, and he really hopes (vainly) that he can make it so by force of will.
The second issue is that Trump views everything in transactional terms—"How does this help (or hurt?) me? That means that he continues to see this situation as primarily a political and PR problem. And that means that his purpose, when he speaks out about COVID-19, isn't really to tell people how to weather the storm and to be safe. No, his goal is to rally the base. Indeed, as CNN's Daniel Dale points out in a perceptive op-ed, since the President can't hold rallies right now, he's using his daily briefings in their place. And, of course, we all know what that entails: a litany of exaggerations, falsehoods, media-bashing, and complaining about being victimized (more on this below). Trump's Monday briefing was close to two hours long. That is much closer to "rally" length than it is to "helpful information and an update on our progress" length.
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Mar24.html#item-2
Es wird sich schon ein Schuldiger finden.
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Gleichgeschalteter Wahnsinn
Wanli, 25.03.2020 10:48, Antwort aufDie New York Times verdeutlicht einmal mehr, warum social distancing dringend geboten ist und welche Rolle der Präsident bei der Durchsetzung hätte.
“The United States has passed the point where aggressive, targeted efforts at tracking and containment, like those pursued by South Korea, have a realistic chance of success. And calls for voluntary social distancing have had mixed results, as the photos of spring breakers crammed together on the Florida beaches last week made clear.”
“We are not suggesting that Mr. Trump has the authority to order a national lockdown, much less advocating that he attempt to enforce one. Instead, we are urging him to use the bully pulpit to put pressure on, and provide political cover for, governors to take the hard steps that are needed.”
https://politicalwire.com/2020/03/24/all-americans-need-to-shelter-in-place/
Die Washington Post registriert, dass die Gesundheitsexperten mittlerweile wieder weniger Gehör finden beim POTUS.
“Trump has increasingly minimized and pushed aside many of the top public health and scientific experts in his administration, instead relying on advice from economic advisers and outside voices in the business community who are urging him to prioritize the nation’s economy above all else.”
https://politicalwire.com/2020/03/24/trump-vs-the-scientists/
Drumpf möchte erklärtermaßen die (sowieso sehr moderaten) Eindämmungsmaßnahmen möglichst bald aufgeben, um die Wirtschaft wieder in Gang zu bringen. Mir ist es absolut unverständlich, wie jemand auf den Gedanken kommen kann, die Wirtschaft werde wieder fröhlich brummen, während die Seuche sich ungehindert ausbreitet: Letztendlich scheint mir der asiatische / europäische Weg, das öffentliche Leben zunächst weitgehend lahmzulegen, um seuchentechnisch quasi den Reset-Knopf zu drücken, auch rein auf die Wirtschaft bezogen - ohne Rücksicht auf Menschenleben also - mittelfristig deutlich erfolgversprechender. Und auch politisch kann man mit einer überzeugenden Leistung als Krisenmanager, der geduldig erklärt, aber auch zunächst unpopuläre Maßnahmen nicht scheut, im Endeffekt sicher deutlich besser punkten als wenn man einfach weiter fiedelt, während Rom brennt. Gut: Drumpf fehlt natürlich so ziemlich jede Qualität, die man als Krisenmanager braucht; vielleicht scheidet diese Option auch deshalb aus.
If we put control measures in place, we’re providing substantial certainty to everyone. The rescue bill keeps incomes flowing, and when the control measures are lifted everyone can go back to work. Since they’ve been taken care of during the crisis, their savings are intact and they’ll be willing to immediately raise their consumption to normal levels. We’d be in a deep recession for a few months, but it’s only a recession in a very technical sense since we’ve deliberately engineered it and everyone knows exactly what caused it. There’s no reason to think we wouldn’t bounce back as soon as we announce that the epidemic is over.
If we don’t put control measures in place, lots of people will die and the epidemic will last longer. That’s bad on its own, but it also introduces terrific uncertainty. The huge number of deaths will depress the economy for a while and those workers will only be slowly replaced. People will remain afraid to spend money until they’re sure the epidemic is over, and that’s going to be a very dicey thing. This would fundamentally be like a normal recession, in which we take a dive and then come back out of it slowly as businesses and consumers haltingly regain confidence.
The crazy thing about this is that the first scenario is almost certainly better not just from a humanitarian point of view, but also from a political point of view. Trump could be a hero and the economy would be in strong shape by November. In the second scenario, fear and recession remain in place for months, only slowly dissipating. Trump would be doomed on Election Day. How does he not get that?
Man muss es wohl kaum erwähnen: Kaum macht Drumpf einen Rückzieher, will die Einschränkungen des öffentliche Leben möglichst bald wieder aufheben, schon schwenken überall Republikaner und sogenannte "Konservative" ein auf die neue Linie. Hirntod, völlig gleichgeschaltet.
Modern conservative politics is remarkable. Two days ago it felt like everyone was totally on board with school closings and quarantines and social distancing. It was the new reality. Then Donald Trump announced that he didn’t really believe the experts after all and wanted to re-open the economy. Within 24 hours I swear that practically every conservative in the country was suddenly in agreement—or seriously considering it at the very least. All Trump had to do was open his mouth to produce a right-wing U-turn so violent you could almost hear the necks snapping.
How has Trump done this?
https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/03/trump-says-jump-wingers-ask-how-h igh/
Die amerikanischen Konservativen sind so daran gewöhnt, einfach irgendwelchen BS in die Welt setzen zu können, gern auch das Gegenteil von dem, was gestern noch Dogma war, dass man offenbar völlig das Gefühl dafür verloren hat, dass es objektive Realitäten gibt, die sich nicht einfach weglabern lassen.
